System Dynamics Modelling

Vision

The goal of this project is to make the impacts of Intellectual Property Management more transparent and accessible to stakeholders in agriculture –stakeholders such as policy makers, private companies and input producers. CAS-IP is using System Dynamics modelling to identify and create solutions to assist decision making in agriculture, in relation to Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs). Using quantitative and qualitative approaches we aim to create an understanding of how IPRs affect R&D, production and the dissemination of new products within an agricultural context.

Methodology

IP is considered by many as an important facilitating mechanism. But what in particular are the mechanisms that encourage or prevent the flow of technology transfer, investment in agricultural R&D and the dissemination of materials? We approach this question in a systemic way, focusing on knowledge stocks and their in and outflows.

System Dynamic Modelling uses computer simulation to establish analysis as well as to communicate our results. This simulation can visually capture peoples’ mental models of processes and provide a basis for discussion and analysis of complex situations. Improved mental models mean improved strategies and eventually in better decisions and outcomes. Figure 1 below illustrates this rationale.

figure 1

System Dynamics is an approach to understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect the behaviour of the entire system. What makes using system dynamics different from other approaches to studying complex systems is the use of feedback loops and stocks and flows.

Case Study – The West African Seed Sector

The case study the CAS-IP System Dynamic team is currently working on is the impact of Intellectual Property Management on price and availability of improved seed varieties in West Africa. How can IP strategies be designed to support the public and the private sector in developing and disseminating new seed varieties? The figure below provides an overview of how the seed system can be seen from a feedback perspective.

System Dynamic Model. Case Study; the West African Seed Sector

This mode of displaying the seed system emphasises how important factors of the system like “seed production“ and “seed price“ are driven by other components of the system and how they develop over time. Take as an example the simple loop at the top of the diagram where a rising seed price will result in less farmers’ demand which will in turn drive the seed price down again. This is a process that could take place over several months to years, and is represented by this loop.

Using System Dynamics we will address the critical features of seed value chains. For example, the production and delivery delays in the value chain are influenced by feedback mechanisms of the market, which cause fluctuations of economic activity. An important feature of this technique is the dynamic aspect, which means developments over time can be taken into consideration, enabling the analysis of the possible effect of decisions made today on the future.

Specifically in relation to Intellectual Property there are several questions we are focusing on:
- The factors that influence the quality of IPRs like Plant Variety Protection and Patents
- How patent scope decisions influence the development of new varieties, both in the sense of an individual invention and that of a future line of improvement
- How the issues at stake regarding patent breadth depend on the nature of technology in an industry
- How this knowledge might affect Public-Private Partnerships and the decision of the public sector to “licence-out” material
- Under which circumstances IPRs contribute to the growth of a private seed sector rather then restricting competition

The desired outcomes of this research project will include:

- An overview of the seed sector that identifies and describes the “mental models” of actors in the public and private sectors, internationally and locally;
- The creation of a web-based interface that can be used to visualise the impact of the decisions policy makers may take by posing “what if?” run-time scenarios;
- A contribution to WASA goals by providing learning tools for IP capacity building for the public and the private sectors in West Africa.

Publications

• Making the value chain work – analysing the impact of Intellectual asset and property management for seed sector development in West Africa
• Foreign direct investment and spillovers in seed sector development
• Model-based exploration of strategies for fostering adoption of improved seed in West Africa